A man walking along a road in the countryside comes across a shepherd and a huge flock of sheep.
He says to the shepherd, "I will bet you $100 against one of your sheep that I can tell you the exact number in this flock."
The shepherd thinks it over; it's a big flock so he takes the bet. "Nine hundred seventy three," says the man.
The shepherd is astonished, because that is exactly right. He says "OK, I'm a man of my word, take an animal." The man picks one up and begins to walk away.
"Wait," cries the shepherd, "Let me have a chance to get even. Double or nothing that I can guess your exact occupation."
The man says sure. "You are an economist for the government budget office," says the shepherd.
"Amazing!" responds the man, "You are exactly right! But tell me, how did you deduce that?"
"Well," says the shepherd, "put down my dog and I will tell you."