The "Primary Model" gives Trump an 87% chance of winning in November — agree?

Question

"My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton"

says university political scientist Helmut Norpoth.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/my-model-shows-donald-trump-has-an-87-percent-chance-of-beating-hillary-clinton-1.12102905

Answer 1

Personally, I think a OUIJA Board has more credibility than any Poll when it comes to predicting who the next President is going to be. 

Answer 2

This wasn't a poll.  It was a statistical study of historical and political factors.

Of course, it might also be a false-flag article, designed to scare unenthusiastic Democrats to get out and vote.

Answer 3

I mean, there were also statistical studies that said Bernie would win, and look how that turned out

Answer 4

The most notorious Bernie prediction that I'm aware of came from Western Illinois University (which "hasn't been wrong since 1975"), which of course liberal outlets ate up.

http://www.liberalamerica.org/2015/12/05/they-havent-been-wrong-our-next-president-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/

Only trouble was, it wasn't a statistical study... it was a mock election, and given Sanders' popularity among students, the (wrong) outcome was not surprising.

Answer 5

I hope you're right. Not a big fan of Trump but he's a lot better than another Clinton. Look what NAFTA did for our country !

Answer 6

I somehow doubt that the author of the article really believes the odds are so in favor of Trump.

As I speculated to Cowboy above, it might be a false-flag article, designed to scare unenthusiastic Democrats to get out and vote.

Answer 7

At least if Trump wins by that point I'll be old enough to order a whiskey in a bar

Answer 8

And you won't be old enough at that point if Hillary wins...? 

Answer 9

If Hillary wins I won't have to over dramatically drown my sorrows

Answer 10

I heard that if Trump wins,he was going to make a deal with Putin to import lots of cheap vodka, so you'll be all set.