Autumn at Cwmbran Boating Lake

Question

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Answer 1

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Comments

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Finally worked out how to get my own photos on here.

Taken November 5th 2020 during lockdown.

Sun rising!

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Oh, so lovely...I was remembering the Welsh firebreak while going through these, and hoping you are able to move around enough to visit such places!

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It’s only at the bottom of the estate.

From Monday I can travel anywhere within Wales so look out for some more of other places.

Planning to go to Abergavenny on Monday if it is dry.

England went into lockdown yesterday.I am not supposed to go there....

Answer 2

Hi Sir Furry,

Your photos remind me of the Monarch Sculpture Park near Tenino...this photo does not show it, but there is a pretty creek running through! I like this place because of the dreams of the artists, a refuge and school and community for them.

Plus, it is a place I could visit and still stay away from crowds, which I try to do so as to minimize the chances of bringing something home to the old folks in the senior apts. where I live. I called our local health dept. and they are now barely able to keep up with soaring case numbers...our county has apparently not gotten out of control yet, but when they saw that I understood a bit about how the pandemic works they were trying to recruit me for employment! (I told them I was 76 y/o but that I would spread the word, hope I can help them out somehow. And I hope your lockdown is successful, and they get in control there.)

Anyway, here is your photo of the Monarch Sculpture Park:

Comments

That’s lovely.

Don’t know about successful but there is some suggestion figures were starting to fall before lockdown.

And I noticed yesterday’s pronouncement included the fact that certain bodies have been charged with the task of finding ways of opening more up.And we are promised another pronouncement in two weeks.Fingers crossed.

And I still want the total number of daily deaths from everything in the daily pronouncements!

I know one day last week there were about 1,800 in Wales.Only eighty were Covid related.But the government don’t want you know that.We might start asking questions!

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It's apparent you don't have confidence in the decision-makers, SFA...which suggests many people feel as you do...

You and I already talked about Taiwan...from the fellow in Carlisle, I learned more about Taiwan. They seem to have done so much, and very well -- each week, for instance, the physician director of their CDC would speak to the whole nation, keeping everyone informed. It was impressive, what they accomplished and in a short time too.

the excess deaths you mention seem to be a reliable indicator. I saw (same fellow in Carlisle), that is how they figured out that the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19 killed 675,000 in the USA...they compared death statistics from the previous five years.

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I really do think we cannot have three different approaches to this in an Island the size of Britain.But it is where we are.

And I don’t think anyone has any idea on how to really deal with this other than relying on the mythical vaccine.

Boris did a Trump the other day and announced Covid would be beaten by the Spring,without explaining how.While one of his ministers said English lockdown would last at least six months.

Meanwhile we Welsh  are being told we don’t need another one.

Some places along the border are partly in England,partly in Wales.One village near Abergavenny has two pubs.One is in England,the other in Wales.Last week the Welsh pub was shut.The English one was open.For four days they are both shut.From Monday the Welsh one is open and the English one shut.And you are not supposed to cross the border which divides the village!Which just shows the absurdity of it all.

I am allowed to go to Scotland....but to get there I have to travel through England...without stopping.Which isn’t actually possible by train!Got to change trains in England.

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I saw just yesterday...Boris Johnson almost died from COVID. He was on oxygen, and for a while it was 50-50 that they might have to intubate him...not a good prognosis there. I mention that, because it seems strange he would be rather flip about having the virus under control by spring.

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Yes....but he did say it.And who knows?

I remember a serious flu epidemic here.Around 1990.I was working as a Supply (Substitute) teacher at the time.From October until March I had one term time day I did not work.Shops,Offices,factories all seriously affected.It spread like wildfire with that Winters vaccine being fairly useless.I taught one class with nine pupils out of 35 in attendance.

Why do I mention this?Because it arrived suddenly,spread like no tomorrow and after Easter gone.And no one thought of social distancing and quarantine.Can’t remember what they called it.But it was a really serious strain of flu.

And I didn’t get it....although I did in 1997 when flu was not prevalent.One can’t predict these things.Covid could disappear,

And I just saw something which suggested South Africa has achieved herd immunity through the sheer number of people who were infected but never knew it.

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I went back and looked up SARS-1, which was around in 2003 -- and it did disappear just suddenly. Some sources say it was all the care with quarantine and stopping international flights, etc. But others say that no one knows why it disappeared like that. 

SARS-1 killed 80,000 people total, worldwide, which seems small compared to this one...then just gone. 

Your UK-island-mate in Carlisle is also intrigued by Africa.

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I don't recall any quarantining for SARS in 2003, Virginia.  I have read that something like 70 million Americans are estimated to have caught it, which might mean that herd immunity kicked in..

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70 million! That would be just a bit less than 25% of the population at the time. SARS-1, I have read, was most contagious after symptoms began and thus easier to control than this one...I am probably not interested enough to actually look it up, but I wonder if 25% might then indeed confer some degree of herd protection...combine with natural quarantine from sick people tending to stay home anyway.

If herd immunity is even possible with this one, my sources are saying probably 60% of the population is the likely range required...with great hope that long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is even possible.

My neighbor, a dear young thing of only 70 years, had it (SARS-1). She said it was awful; but now the scientists are saying that immunity to SARS-1 is long-term, and 17 years on now, does still confer upon people like her a degree of protection for this one...incorporating those ~70 million from SARS-1, now I am wondering if they will contribute to controlling SARS-2?

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Maybe. There is probably a segment of the population that has prior immunity to Covid-19.

Answer 3

Really beautiful! 

Answer 4

Lovely.